Monday 10:00 PM Update:
As of now, even though Sally sits just offshore, it’s still too early to determine exactly where the center will move on-shore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally’s northward turn near the Gulf coast.
At this time, the focus need not be on the landfall position or category, but consequential impacts, which will mainly be east of the center of circulation.
Our in-house model shows Sally moving on shore at roughyl midnight Wednedsay. Notice the bands and outer bands all throughout south Alabama. These will be producers of psin up tornadoes and heavy rain.
Through Wednesday morning rainfall becomes persistant along I-65 from Greenville down to Mobile and stretches across the western part of the Flrodia Panhandle.
By noon, I-10 north to Montgomery get soaked. Not only will rain be a concern but the potential for spin up tornadoes will be too. North of I-85 it will be mostly rain. The chance for tornadoes will be very conditional. It doesn’t mean the threat is zero. It just means that the threat is highly dependent on several factors that may or may not materialize at this time.
By Wednesday night the threat is almost exclusively east of I-65 and south of I-85. Rain continues along I-20, but the dangerous, spin up tornado threat is limited. By Wednesday night Mobile will also see the greatest winds and rain threats move out.
By Thursday morning only a few lingering showers remain. We’ll even start to see some breaks in the rain and moments of sunshine return.
Rainfall totals are going to be the greatest south of I-20 although significant rain (anything over an inch) can easily be collected along I-20. The further north we get the the rain totals drop off pretty substantially.