Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall tomorrow & Friday | Central AL Forecast

October 02 2021 06:00 pm

Tonight, a few showers will be possible until midnight. Then it will be partly cloudy and muggy with some patchy fog. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

The trough will move over us on Thursday and Friday. This will set off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Some heavy rain can be expected since we will remain very humid from Fred. Rain totals could be around 1-3″+. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Weekend Outlook: An area of high pressure will move over the Deep South from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Saturday will still have some scattered showers and thunderstorms with high temperatures in the upper 80s. The area of high pressure will build over us on Sunday, and this will keep us mostly dry. A stray shower is possible, but most of us will be partly cloudy. It will be hot and humid with high temperatures in the lower 90s, and the heat index in the lower 100s.

Tracking the Tropics: The remnants of Fred are moving across the Ohio Valley states. Heavy rain and tornadoes are expected from Virginia to Pennsylvania.

We now have Hurricane Grace in the western Caribbean south of Cuba or west of Grand Cayman. It is moving toward the west and will move along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge of high pressure that is over the Gulf of Mexico. This track keeps Grace moving south of Cuba toward the Yucatan Peninsula in the next 24 hours. It will move over very warm deep water with high ocean heat content, but the wind shear is expected to be moderate, so this will keep it from getting too strong. Grace is forecast to be at least a Category 1 hurricane as it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday. Some of the intensity models show that it could become a Category 2 hurricane. Then it will weaken briefly over land and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Once it is back over water, Grace is expected to strengthen back into a Category 1 Hurricane. Landfall is forecast to be over Northern Mexico this weekend.  

Tropical Storm Henri is now expected to remain over warm water but will battle wind shear today as it sits southwest of Bermuda in the Atlantic. It is expected to maintain its intensity for the next 3 days as it battles some moderate wind shear. After that time, Henri is forecast to get stronger as the wind shear relaxes and become a hurricane. It will turn toward the NW to N to NE tracking clockwise between the U.S East Coast and Bermuda. Some of the forecast models are now showing Henri coming closer to the NE U.S. just off the New England Coast. Right now, there is some uncertainty in the extended forecast, but there is a chance it could track very close to Massachusetts as a hurricane on Sunday.

That’s all for now!  Be sure to follow the CBS 42 Storm Team on:

Facebook: Chief Meteorologist Ashley Gann, Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum, Meteorologist Griffin Hardy and Meteorologist Michael Haynes

Twitter: @Gannweather, @Dave_Nussbaum, @GriffinHardyWX, @MichaelHaynes for more Birmingham weather updates anytime!

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