FORECAST OVERVIEW: A rather active and somewhat difficult to forecast pattern is shaping up across the state of Alabama for the majority of this week. Tropical moisture from the un-named tropical wave that moved onshore in Texas will push eastward this week across the Southeast. Models differ on the organization of this system as it moves eastward, but regardless, deep tropical moisture will move into Alabama through this week. That, coupled with a stubborn front that stalls across the state and an upper-level pattern that supports lift, will mean a heavy rain threat could pose a flooding risk for parts of the state this week. Storms could drop over 6″ of rain on some communities in Central Alabama over the next 7 days, and that could lead to some flash flooding concerns. Highest rainfall totals this week are likely to be focused along and west of I-65, but any one spot could deal with a stalled storm that produces flash flooding this week. Some of the best rising motion exits the state Friday into the weekend, but lingering tropical moisture means scattered heavy storms will remain in the forecast for the foreseeable future.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The stormy pattern continues through mid-week as tropical moisture combined with lift in the upper levels of the atmosphere supports much heavier than normal rainfall. Storms will be capable of some gusty winds, but the heavy rain threat remains the largest concern, with some spots potentially seeing 6″ of rain over the next 7 days.
This could lead to some flash flooding concerns, particularly in spots that have poor drainage or are typically flood-prone. The excessive rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures below average through the week, with highs only reaching the low 80s Tuesday through Thursday.
FRIDAY & THE WEEKEND: While it may not be quite as widespread, scattered storms will remain in the forecast for the end of the week. Because it won’t be quite as rainy, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the upper 80s, but passing downpours could still produce locally heavy rain through the end of the week.