Central AL Forecast: Rain Ends Tonight. Heat Returns Tomorrow.

October 02 2021 06:00 pm

Tonight, will be partly cloudy with a stray shower. Watch out for some patchy fog. It will be muggy with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Thursday and Friday will remain hot and humid with afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms could be strong with downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning strikes. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s. The heat index will be around 100-105°+ each day through Friday, so additional Heat Advisories are likely.

Weekend Outlook: Forecast models are showing a weak cold front getting into northern Alabama this weekend as deep tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Fred moves over the state by Sunday. Saturday will be hot and humid with pop-up scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will stay in the lower 90s. The front will slowly move into northern Alabama on Sunday, and a weak low will move west across the Gulf of Mexico. These features, combined with the added moisture ahead of Fred will give us a better chance and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be around 90°.

Tracking The Tropics: Tropical Storm Fred formed Tuesday night near Puerto Rico. It is better organized, but now it will be battling dry air, some wind shear and moving over and Hispaniola today. Fred will then move NW over the northern coast of Cuba on Thursday and Friday. Then it is expected to track into the SE Gulf of Mexico this weekend near Key West, FL. On this track the intensity will be kept low at this time. Once Fred moves into the Gulf of Mexico it is expected turn to the north and be off the west coast of Florida. It will also strengthen due to the warmer water and getting away from land. Right now, there is A LOT of uncertainty in the forecast. Fred must survive its trek to the Gulf first. If it does, then it is possible a tropical storm could make landfall on Monday on the Florida Panhandle. It is too soon to stay where landfall could be located. IF Fred takes this path, we will not see too much rain from it since most of Alabama will be on the western side (drier side) of the storm. Make sure you check back for updates.

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west across the central Atlantic. Forecast models want to take this system into the Caribbean in the next 5+ days. NHC is giving this system a low chance to develop at this time.

Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics will be quiet for the next 5 days.

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