TROPICS: Dorian Cat 1 Storm. Accelerating to the North.


The eye is less defined and the storm as we now as Dorian is peeling away from land, at least the lower 48. Geographically, there is still a bit more land that this storm could interact with as it now takes aim at Newfoundland and Nova Scotia.

A combination of surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum winds are near 90 mph and the central pressure is near 957 mb. The hurricane is much organized in satellite imagery.

The initial motion is now NE at 17 mph. Dorian should accelerate northeastward during the next 24-36 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system and accelerates the steering flow. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in either direction or speed from the previous forecast. The new forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic.

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