Windy and Rainy Monday; Weather Aware Later This Week

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mild and dry. Lows around 60°.

MONDAY: A weak cold front pushes across the state through the day. Despite warm and unstable air in place, a lack of upper-level support and meager lift from the weak front will lead to only scattered showers and storms. Despite this limiting factor, a fairly strong low-level jet will be in place, which will allow for some gradient wind gusts to exceed 35 mph. Highs reach the mid 70s.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Warm weather continues into the middle of the week. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday will be clear and dry, but some clouds build in Wednesday and by Wednesday afternoon, a few scattered showers and storms could be forming. We don’t expect any severe weather with storms Wednesday, but it’s possible a few storms west of I-20 could produce some small hail.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The weather pattern becomes much more volatile Thursday into Friday as a strong upper-air trough and associated surface low move across the Southeast.

Thursday morning, a warm front lifts north across the state and stalls across Tennessee as a surface low intensifies to our west and northwest.

As the warm front lifts north, we’ll have more warm and unstable air lifting from the Gulf of Mexico. That warm air advecting north will likely trigger at least scattered showers and storms, but as of now it appears the heaviest rain through the day will be confined closer to the warm front across the Tennessee Valley. Storms through the day Thursday are expected to remain below severe limits, but some gusty winds will be possible by late afternoon and evening as a strong low level jet approaches the state.

Late Thursday night into Friday morning, a strong cold front will push across the state, with an associated line of strong to severe storms running just ahead of the front. While this time-frame means unstable air will be a bit more limited than it would be during the afternoon and evening, there will be sufficient instability to support severe weather.

There appears to be a substantial combination of unstable air, wind shear and energy, and upper-air support and lift to allow segments of this line of storms to become severe. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail are all possible impacts.

While the heaviest rain is currently forecast to stay north of US-278, We’ll keep a mention of a flash flood threat in place because of a relatively saturated ground and above average streamflows across Central Alabama.