SUNDAY: Highs again in the 70s. Mostly cloudy. Chance for a passing shower, but most spots stay dry.
MONDAY: A weak cold front pushes across the state Monday, which could trigger some scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures will again reach the 70s. With a warm and unstable airmass in place, and strong winds aloft, a storm or two could become strong, but we tend to think storms remain below severe limits. Still, it will be a windy day even outside of thunderstorms, with pressure-gradient wind gusts exceeding 35 mph.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Dry, mild, and sunny on Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s. Clouds return to the forecast for Wednesday, but much of the day will be dry. Highs will again be in the mid 70s. Some isolated showers and storms are possible late Wednesday afternoon, especially north of I-20. Rain chances will gradually increase into Thursday.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A near stationary front will set up Thursday somewhere across North and Central Alabama. That will increase rain chances through the day Thursday. Where the front sets up and rainfall is heaviest, some flash flooding will be possible.
Creeks and rivers across the northern two-thirds of the state are running at above average streamflows and the ground is fairly saturated, so runoff could cause creeks and streams to rise rapidly. River flooding has been an ongoing issue this year with above average rainfall, particularly on the Tombigbee and Black Warrior rivers this month. As the day continues, a strong surface low will develop to our west as an upper level trough digs east across the Great Plains and moves towards the mid-south.
Models continue to struggle a bit with the exact placement of that strengthening surface low. If the low is further northwest, towards the Mississippi/Tennessee border, we’d likely get a break in the rain across Central Alabama as warm and unstable air lifts north ahead of a cold front. That cold front would be capable of triggering strong to severe storms.
However, some modeling suggests the surface low tracks more directly over Central Alabama. That would leave the near-stationary front draped over us through Thursday night and into Friday. This would reduce the severe weather threat substantially, but would likely enhance our flooding threat. As of now, too much forecast uncertainty exists to warrant a Weather Aware day, but we’ll be monitoring this closely as it could warrant that in the next day or two as the forecast becomes a bit more clear. Regardless of the severe weather threat, there will be at least some flooding and gusty wind threat across North and Central Alabama Thursday into Friday with this system. Wind gusts outside of thunderstorms could exceed 40 mph Thursday night into Friday, and 2-4″ of rain is forecast for areas north of I-20 over the next 7 days, with the majority of that falling Thursday and Friday.
Storm Team 7 Day
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