Central AL Forecast: Storms, Heavy rain most of this week


A cut-off low will move across the ArkLaTex today. This will send an upper-level wave/disturbance across central Alabama, and that will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms again. It will be very humid, so any rain that falls will be heavy. Some areas across central Alabama could pick up 1-2″ of rain, so watch out for minor flooding issues. The storms could also produce strong winds of 40-60 mph. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight, will be mostly cloudy with spotty showers and a few thunderstorms. It will be muggy with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will have more scattered storms as the cut-off low slowly moves to the northeast and sends a few more waves across central Alabama. Some downpours are possible with any storm. It will stay warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

The cut–off low will weaken into an open wave by Thursday and Friday. We will still have some weak upper-level waves moving across the state, but the overall coverage of storms will be less. Expect more scattered storms to pop-up with the heating of the day. It will remain warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

Weekend Outlook: We will no longer have to deal with the upper-level low, but now the winds aloft will come out of the northwest. We will have to watch for storms to develop across the Plains States and move southeast toward Alabama. If they do develop, and we will not know until the day before, then we could see an uptick of storm coverage. Right now, I’m going with a partly cloudy Saturday and Sunday with scattered storms popping up in the afternoon with the heating of the day. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s.

Tropical Update: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the south-central Caribbean later this week. Some slow development of this low is possible as it moves west into Central America over the weekend. NHC is giving it a low chance to develop at 20%.

Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics are quiet.

It looks like the tropics are starting to wake up over the next 5-14 days. Right now, there is not a threat to the Gulf, but we could see some development over the next week or two. Some of the forecast models are hinting at some development through the middle of June.

It’s pretty common this time of year to get lows that form near Central American and move north into the Gulf. These come from the Central American Gyre. It is a large area of low pressure that sets up over Central America, and happens early in the hurricane season. Occasionally a piece of this gyre will break off and develop into a tropical system. This happened with Cristobal (2020) and Alberto (2018).

Remember, if it is more than 5-7 days out there is too much uncertainty to talk specifics. I will just watch it for the next 7-10 days.

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