Tropical Storm Bill tracks towards Newfoundland. High chance of more development in the Gulf | Tracking the Tropics

Tracking the Tropics

Late yesterday evening, Tropical Storm Bill officially formed off the Atlantic coast, about 335 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, NC, becoming the 2nd named Atlantic tropical storm of 2021. Right now, Bill is still racing to the NE very quickly at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has Bill continuing it’s short lifespan as a fast-paced tropical storm, likely pushing ashore on the East coast of Newfoundland tomorrow morning with tropical storm-force winds & heavy rain. Otherwise, that will be the full extent of impacts from Bill.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we are continuing to track an area of potential development in the Gulf of Mexico. This is historically a very common area to see development in the month of June, somewhat resembling the early stages of Tropical Storm Cindy (2017). As of Tuesday morning, this area still has a high, 70% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Current ensemble forecast is struggling with how exactly this broad area of low pressure will track over the next 5 days. However, this is often the case when “proto-storms” haven’t become organized enough for forecast models to “see” the storm. We’ll have to wait for this low to consolidate first before we know with confidence where it’s headed. Regardless, be prepared for the possibility of a tropical storm in the Gulf as early as Friday.

Much farther out in the Atlantic, we have a tropical wave tracking West off the coast of Africa. This area is being monitored for development, but the chances of it become more organized have gone down since yesterday. Right now, this area has only a 10% chance of development over the next 5 days.

If the tropical low in the Gulf eventually becomes better organized, it would most likely become Tropical Storm Claudette later this week.

That’s all for now…stay in touch with me on social media! You can always find the latest on our forecast in Central AL on Twitter by following me, @GriffinHardyWX. You can always reach out to me with forecast questions anytime by sending an e-mail to ghardy@cbs42.com.

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