Invest 93L has become Tropical Depression 10 in the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun, Mexico. Forecast to become Tropical Storm Idalia on Sunday and a hurricane on Tuesday. The track is stationary for the next 24-36 hours, then moves NE toward the Big Bend of FL with landfall on Wednesday morning possibly as a Cat. 1 hurricane. It will battle some light to moderate wind shear from an upper-level low west of TD 10. There will be very warm water to fuel the storm.

There is some uncertainty in the intensity, so more intensification into a stronger storm is possible. Expect changes before landfall. I will have to closely watch for this possibility.

Alabama Threats: Right now, the models show a cold front moving across Alabama by Wednesday. This would deflect the storm to our southeast. If the storm moves in faster, then we could see rain and wind spreading across Alabama. On the current forecast track, SE Alabama is in the forecast cone, and the system will bring this region heavy rain bands and some gusty winds. If the track shifts more to the west, then we could see more rain/wind across the I-65 corridor, including Birmingham.

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