Tracking the Tropics: Tropical Storm Larry forecast to become major hurricane

Tracking the Tropics
October 02 2021 06:00 pm

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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Tropical Storm Larry formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean Wednesday morning, strengthening from Tropical Depression 12.

Larry is now one of four systems the National Hurricane Center is monitoring, as Tropical Depression Kate churns in the Atlantic and Ida moves toward the northeastern United States as a post-tropical cyclone. A disturbance in the Caribbean is also being monitored.

Tropical Storm Larry

Larry continued strengthening Wednesday morning after reaching tropical storm strength, and is expected to become a hurricane Thursday.

As of 11 a.m. ET, the storm is about 275 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

According to the NHC, favorable conditions – light shear, a moist environment and warm sea surface temperatures – will allow for steady to rapid strengthening in the coming days. An intensity forecast calls for Larry to reach hurricane strength on Thursday and major hurricane strength later.

Tropical Depression Kate

Kate weakened into a tropical depression on Tuesday and, according to the NHC’s 11 a.m. ET advisory put out Wednesday, is struggling and not expected to last much longer.

The system was about 910 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as of 11 a.m. It’s moving toward the north-northwest and is expected to continue in that direction until turning to the north and north-northeast Thursday.

Kate is expected to weaken gradually over the next several days. It’s forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday before dissipating entirely on Friday.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida

The NHC has stopped issuing advisories on Ida, which became a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. The system is now being monitored by the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.

According to the NWS, Ida is bringing widespread heavy rain to the northeast. As of 11 a.m., Ida was about 70 miles north of Roanoke, Virginia with maximum sustained wind speeds of 30 mph.

Flood and flash flood watches are in effect for parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic as well as southern New York and Southern New England. The NWS warns that there’s also an enhanced risk for tornadoes across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday.

Invest 91L

The NHC is also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea that is producing disorganized showers.

According to the NHC, some slow development of the disturbance is possible in the coming days if it stays over open water as it moves near the coast of Central America. After that, the system could have another chance for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC has given the system a low 30 percent chance of development.

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