Tracking The Tropics: Possible tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico

Tracking the Tropics

⚠️EVENING UPDATE: A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon and potential tropical cyclone advisories will likely start on this system at 4 p.m.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is moving north from The Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico. It remains poorly organized, but is expected to head north tonight into Friday.

Once it moves in the central to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight into Friday, some slow development is possible, and it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm (Claudette). It is still way too early to say where it will end up, but based off the latest forecast models anywhere from Texas to Louisiana could possibly see a landfall from the disturbance. However, the models are still not in agreement with where it will go since it is not a developed closed low. This system will have a very large area of heavy rain, so don’t focus on where landfall will be located. Rain could stretch from Texas all the way to the Florida Peninsula from this system. NHC is giving this system a high chance to develop over the next 2-5 days.

This is going to be a messy, wet and lopsided area of low pressure – just like many June tropical systems are in the Gulf. This system will be battling some dry air and wind shear once it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast. There is a good chance that the low will ingest some of that dry air northwest of it into the center of circulation. That means the rain will be displaced to the east and north of the center. West of the center will likely be dry.

Regardless of development, it will spread deep tropical moisture northward, and this will bring plenty of heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast starting along the coast on Friday and inland this weekend into early next week. Coastal areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle will have the highest rain totals around 6-10″+. Inland areas around central Alabama could see 3-5″+. This could lead to some flooding issues of streams, creeks and rivers.

Depending on the exact track of the system, we could also see some brief tropical tornadoes across central Alabama on Saturday night into Sunday. If central Alabama is in the front right quadrant of the low then this will be a risk. The tornadoes are quick, but can produce damage.

What Should You Do?
Please check back for updates the rest of the week and this weekend. The forecast will likely change a few times before we get to the weekend. Once it starts raining keep it tuned to CBS 42 for weather updates dealing with some possible flash flooding and possibly a few tornadoes. Stay safe everyone!

That’s all for now!  Be sure to follow the CBS 42 Storm Team on:

Facebook: Chief Meteorologist Ashley GannMeteorologist Dave NussbaumMeteorologist Griffin Hardy and Meteorologist Michael Haynes

Twitter: @Gannweather, @Dave_Nussbaum@GriffinHardyWX@MichaelHaynes for more Birmingham weather updates anytime!

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