Tracking The Tropics: Possible tropical system in the Gulf later this week

Tracking the Tropics

Invest 92L is still in the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico. It remains poorly organized and it is sitting just east of the Mexican coast. It is expected to meander along the coast today and Thursday before moving to the north.

Once it moves in the central to northern Gulf of Mexico, some slow development is possible, and it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm (Claudette) on Friday into Saturday. It is still way too early to say where it will end up, but anywhere from Texas to Louisiana could possibly see some a landfall from the disturbance. The models are still not in agreement with where it will go yet since it is not a developed system. NHC is giving this system a high chance to develop over the next 2-5 days.

Development:
This is going to be a messy, wet and lopsided area of low pressure – just like many June tropical systems are in the Gulf. This system will be battling some dry air and wind shear once it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast. There is a good chance that the low will ingest some of that dry air northwest of it into the center of circulation. That means the rain will be displaced to the east and north of the center. West of the center will likely be dry.

Impacts:
Regardless of development, it will spread deep tropical moisture northward, and this will bring plenty of heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast starting along the coast on Friday and inland this weekend into early next week. Coastal areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle will have the highest rain totals around 6-10″+. Inland areas around central Alabama could see 1-3″+. This could lead to some flooding issues.

Depending on the exact track of the system, we could also see some brief tropical tornadoes across central Alabama. If central Alabama is in the front right quadrant of the low then this will be a risk. The tornadoes are quick, but can produce minor damage.

What Should You Do?
Please check back for updates the rest of the week and this weekend. The forecast will likely change a few times before we get to the weekend. Once it starts raining keep it tuned to CBS 42 for weather updates dealing with some possible flash flooding and possibly a few tornadoes. Stay safe everyone!

That’s all for now!  Be sure to follow the CBS 42 Storm Team on:

Facebook: Chief Meteorologist Ashley GannMeteorologist Dave NussbaumMeteorologist Griffin Hardy and Meteorologist Michael Haynes

Twitter: @Gannweather, @Dave_Nussbaum@GriffinHardyWX@MichaelHaynes for more Birmingham weather updates anytime!

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