Tracking the Tropics: Tropical Storm Peter is moving NW just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. It is battling strong wind shear according to the latest satellite data. The center of Peter is full exposed and WSW of the strongest thunderstorms – making it very symmetric. The forecast models show that Peter will track to the WNW around the SW side of a subtropical ridge of high pressure in the central Atlantic the next few days. After that time, it will turn to the north and then northeast. Peter will stay north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. It will stay a weak tropical storm through the next few days as it is in a hostile environment. Then as it turns north, it will move over cooler waters and weaken to a tropical depression. This storm will stay out at sea.
Tropical Storm Rose has lost organization the last few hours. It is ragged and is battling wind shear. The center of the storm is fully exposed with only a small area of thunderstorms in the SW part of the system. Rose is moving NW and will continue this track for the next few days as it slows down. Later this week, it will make a sharp turn to the north and then northeast. It will move into an unfavorable area for further development, and it is expected to gradually weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the week, and a remnant low this weekend. This will stay out at sea.
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) is off the coast of Africa, and it is showing some signs of organization. Conditions appear favorable for development over the next few days as it moves to the west. A tropical depression could form later this week as it tracks to the west. This system is forecast to stay out at sea. NHC is giving it a high chance for development.
Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics are quiet.
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