Tracking the Tropics: Nicholas will spread torrential rain and significant flooding from Texas to the Alabama coasts

Tracking the Tropics
October 02 2021 06:00 pm

Nicholas made landfall around 12:30 AM today along the Matagorda Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. It will spread heavy rain across SE TX and LA today as it turns east around a subtropical ridge of high pressure and slows down. This slow motion will allow for torrential rain today through Thursday across Louisiana. Rainfall totals will be around 6-10″+ along I-10 corridor from Houston to New Orleans to the Mississippi Coast. Significant flooding is expected from Texas to the Alabama coasts.

Central Alabama will be far enough north of the center of Nicholas, so we will not get the heaviest rains. However, we will still be close enough to see numerous showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday through Friday. Fortunately, the heaviest will be be south and west of Birmingham from Montgomery to the coast. However, this could change if Nicholas tracks farther north. We will keep an eye on this.

Thursday and Friday will have more rain thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy at times. Rain totals between Wednesday and Friday could be around 1-3 inches across central Alabama. This could lead to minor flooding issues along streams, creeks, and rivers.

A strong tropical wave is off the west coast of Africa. Conditions are favorable for development as it gets better organized today, and a tropical depression could form in the next few days as it moves west across the eastern Atlantic Ocean. NHC is giving this system a high chance to develop.

There is an area of low pressure forecast to form mid-week just north of the central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with a trough of low pressure. Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week as the system moves north across the western Atlantic. NHC is giving it a medium chance to develop.

Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics are quiet.

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Twitter: @Gannweather, @Dave_Nussbaum, @GriffinHardyWX, @MichaelHaynes for more Birmingham weather updates anytime!

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