Tracking The Tropics: Nicholas stalls over SW Louisiana, but brings heavy rain across much of the Southeast U.S.

Tracking the Tropics
October 02 2021 06:00 pm

Nicholas is a tropical depression and will weaken to a non-tropical low today. It will stall and meander over western Louisiana the next few days. Torrential rain will be spread across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today through Thursday.

Rainfall totals will be around 6-10″+ along I-10 corridor from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. Expect plenty of flooding concerns. The upper-level portion of Nicholas will move slowly across Mississippi and Alabama the next few days, so rain is expected to continue. Central Alabama will be far enough north of the center of Nicholas, so we will not get the heaviest rains. Around 1-2″ of rain is expected through Friday.

There is a trough of low pressure a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas. Conditions are favorable for some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week as the system moves north across the western Atlantic just off the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving this system a high chance to develop.

An area of low pressure (Invest 95L) is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, and it is getting better organized. Conditions are favorable for development as it gets better organized today, and a tropical depression could form in the next few days as it moves west across the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Forecast models are showing this could become a hurricane this weekend or early next week. NHC is giving this system a high chance to develop.

Lastly, a tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Conditions are favorable for some development as it moves to the WNW over the far eastern Atlantic. NHC is giving this system a low chance to develop.

Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics are quiet.

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