Tracking The Tropics: Hurricane Grace to make landfall on Mexico this weekend. Henri to make landfall on the New England area of the U.S. Sunday

Tracking the Tropics
October 02 2021 06:00 pm

Tracking the Tropics: Grace is now a hurricane again in the Bay of Campeche. It is moving toward the WSW will move over very warm deep water with high ocean heat content. The wind shear will be light to moderate, so this will allow it to get stronger in the southern Gulf. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph as it makes landfall on the main part of Mexico this weekend. It will cross Mexico and likely dissipate over the mountainous terrain. Forecast models are showing Grace, or likely a new system, developing in the Pacific Ocean. If Grace’s circulation remains intact, then the system in the Pacific will stay Grace. If the circulation dissipates and then reforms the new system would get the next Pacific name, Marty.

Tropical Storm Henri is trying to get stronger as it moves over warm water of the Gulf Stream, but will continue to battle wind shear today as it sits between Bermuda and the U.S. in the Atlantic. Due to the wind shear, it is expected to maintain its intensity today. After that time, Henri is forecast to get stronger as the wind shear relaxes, and it turns north as a mid-level ridge of high pressure builds over the Atlantic. At the same time, a shortwave trough of low pressure will move along the U.S. East Coast. These features will pull Henri northward and allow it to become a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday as it sits over the warm Gulf Stream waters. The official forecast now has Henri making landfall over eastern Massachusetts likely as a weakening Category 1 hurricane on Sunday evening. NOAA continues to get upper-level weather data from the NOAA G-IV plane and is ingested into the forecast models to reduce the large track spread between the models.

There is also a large plume of Saharan Dust that will move across the Atlantic Basin over the next week. This will help to reduce the chance for tropical activity across the Atlantic Ocean for a few days. The dust causes the air to be too dry for systems to form.

Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics are quiet.

That’s all for now!  Be sure to follow the CBS 42 Storm Team on:

Facebook: Chief Meteorologist Ashley Gann, Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum, Meteorologist Griffin Hardy and Meteorologist Michael Haynes

Twitter: @Gannweather, @Dave_Nussbaum, @GriffinHardyWX, @MichaelHaynes for more Birmingham weather updates anytime!

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