Tracking The Tropics: Elsa moving up the U.S. East Coast, La Niña Watch issued, and CSU updated their seasonal forecast

Tracking the Tropics

Tropical Storm Elsa is moving northeast out of Georgia and into the Carolinas today. It will spread more heavy rain across this part of the country along with gusty winds. Elsa will continue to move northeast and will move over New York City and across the New England Coast on Friday with heavy rain and gusty winds. This will likely cause travel issues and power outages across these areas. The storm will eventually merge with an area of low pressure over Canada and track over the north Atlantic.

There is also a trough of low pressure over south Texas. This is causing torrential flooding rains. It is over land, so development is not expected over the next few days as it moves farther inland.

La Niña Watch: The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch. This is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of a La Niña within the next six months. Forecasters are predicting that La Niña could emerge during the September through November season and last through the 2021-2022 winter. This could lead to a very active middle to end of the 2021 hurricane season.

Colorado State Forecast Update: The forecasters at Colorado State University have updated their predictions for the 2021 Hurricane Season. They have upped their total named storms to 20 from 18, and upped their forecast hurricane total to 9 from 8. This includes the 5 named storms we’ve had already this season as of July 7th.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral and these conditions are expected to persist for a few more months. Then it is expected to transition into a weak La Niña. Both of these conditions lead to an increased chance for tropical development. Additionally, there are slightly above average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Basin. These warmer waters lead to the development of Elsa and its intensification into the seasons first hurricane. The forecasters are also anticipating an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.

That’s all for now!  Be sure to follow the CBS 42 Storm Team on:

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