At 4 PM CDT Sunday…Tropical Storm Isaias remains a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, moving NNW at 9 mph parallel to Florida’s East coast with a minimum central pressure of 994mb. The storm’s center is now located about 20 miles SE of Palm Bay, Florida, with a large portion of the strongest winds & thunderstorms are located East of the storm’s center.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for areas East of I-95, going from Daytona Beach, FL all the way to Wilmington, North Carolina. Because of the storm’s weakening trend, the Hurricane Watches & Warnings that were in effect yesterday have now expired.
The forecast track remains largely unchanged from yesterday…still expecting this to be a “coast rider” & track mainly parallel to the mid-Atlantic coast, likely curving back towards land sometime late tomorrow & making landfall as a tropical storm near Myrtle Beach, SC.
Storm surge will still be a noteworthy hazard from this storm. In the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, 1 to 3 feet of storm surge is likely from Sebastian Inlet, FL to Edisto Beach, SC. From Edisto to Cape Fear, NC, 2 to 4 feet of surge remains possible. The threat of light storm surge continues from Cape Fear up through Chesapeake Bay.
Excessive rainfall is another likely hazard. Here’s an updated rainfall forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The highest totals are expected along the South Carolina coast, with 4 to 10″ of rain likely from this storm. This swath of excessive rainfall is expected to sweep Northward as Isaias gets scooped up by the jet stream, dumping an additional 6 to 10″ of rain in parts of North Carolina, NE Virginia, and the upper Chesapeake Bay.