Colorado State University issues their August update for the hurricane season, still calls for above-average season

Tracking the Tropics
October 02 2021 06:00 pm

The seasonal hurricane forecast from Colorado State University has been updated. They slightly lowered the total named storms forecasted from 20 to 18, and hurricanes from 9 to 8. They are still expecting four major hurricanes. The total forecast includes Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny and Elsa so far this season.

The active season is due to low wind shear, neutral ENSO & warmer waters of the Atlantic Basin. Also, it appears likely that there will be either a cool neutral ENSO or a weak La Nina during the peak of the hurricane season. This will increase the chance for more storms to develop.

Things are starting to pick up this week with two tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic. This is where we typically see development in August.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today. Conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern Atlantic by early next week. It will move to the WNW around 15 mph. NHC is giving this system a medium chance for development over the next 5 days.

There is another tropical wave located over the central Atlantic. It is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are somewhat favorable for slow development of a system near the Lesser Antilles by early next week. It will move to the WNW at 10-15 mph. NHC is giving this system a low chance for development over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics will be quiet for the next 5 days.

That’s all for now!  Be sure to follow the CBS 42 Storm Team on:

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