Thursday marks the first day of hurricane season and the predictions call for a below normal season.

An El Nino or warming of the Pacific waters off the coast of South America is expected to strengthen, and this will cause increased wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic Basin. The wind shear will tear apart any tropical waves or tropical systems that develop.


The Tropical Atlantic water temperatures are above average and there is also an above-average African Monsoon. This monsoon will help to develop more westward-moving tropical waves across the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. The development of the waves will be interrupted by the enhanced wind shear.

Right on cue, there is something brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC increased the chance for Invest 91L to become a brief tropical depression or tropical storm (Arlene) before the weekend in the NE Gulf. Thunderstorms are better organized this morning and the circulation is better defined. A Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate this system later Thursday, if necessary.

It is drifting to the south over somewhat warm water. Forecast models are in agreement that Invest 91L will move away from the U.S. The disturbance will bring rain and some wind along the NE Gulf Coast and Florida over the next few days. This is not a threat to Alabama.

Alabama will see a few coastal showers and storms along with an increased rip current risk. Please stay out of the Gulf Waters the next few days!

Elsewhere…tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days.

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