After a beautiful Friday with afternoon temps in the 80s and a few clouds, it will quickly devolve overnight as a cold front rapidly moves across the state and brings us strong storms.
Here is the timeline for Friday’s storms. Activity begins to ramp up close to 11pm and will quickly come to an end by sunrise Saturday morning.
The highest threat for severe weather Friday will be centered over the Mississippi Delta and East Arkansas and Louisiana. An enhanced risk (3 of 5) has expanded and now includes northwest Alabama. A slight risk (2 of 5) for central Alabama and marginal risk for East Alabama.
Breaking down the severe threat: Not all communities will be impacted the same Friday night and Saturday night. The strongest storms and greatest risk for tornadoes will be in northwest Alabama from 11pm – 2am. As the line crosses I-65 the severe risk will start to go down, but it doesn’t rule out a few over achieving storms. We must ALL stay weather aware.
The low level jet, which are the winds just a few hundred feet above earth’s surface, will be howling close to 80-90 mph. That could translate to winds between 40-70 mph at the surface. An intense lower level jet coupled with plenty of instability aid in the production of spin in the atmosphere. That spin, could result in tornadoes.
Area with the brighter yellow indicates favorable spin. The areas in blue indicate instability that could support severe storms development.
The greatest threats Friday night will include strong winds and a few tornadoes. The flooding risk is low and there is no threat for hail as these will be lower developing storms.
After the storms move out Saturday night, there will be another round of storms Sunday. The cold front that brings us storms Friday night moves south, stalls, then moves back north as a warm front. As it lifts back across central Alabama it will bring a round of heavier rainfall and the potential for hail.
The active weather pattern tapers early in the week and we’ll have some nice, drier days on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance of rain Thursday, but nothing severe.
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