Tracking the Tropics: Fred expected to Strengthen Today. Impacts widen for Alabama.

October 02 2021 06:00 pm

BIRMINGHAM – Here is what you need to know. Fred will be moving into a favorable environment to re-intensify into Monday. Keep in mind though, there are some inhibiting factors as well, like stronger wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and sloppy center of circulation. Forecasts are indicating that Fred will overcome some of those inhibitors to strengthen into a tropical storm.

By Monday, Fred is likely going to strengthen close to 50 mph as it reaches landfall between Pensacola and Panama City. It will be messy along the Alabama and Florida coast. Wind will be greatest along the immediate shoreline from 40-50 mph. As you move inland, it still remains breezy with winds up to 30 mph. As with any tropical system, the rain is not uniform. That means there will be localized downpours and isolated storms. One or two spin up tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

By Tuesday morning, rain will start moving north into Central Alabama. Anyone to the right (or East) of the circulation should be prepared for locally heavy rain and a brief spin up storm. As Fred moves inland, it will weaken quickly, but it’s impact will not quickly disappear. Rainfall totals in South Alabama and parts of West Georgia are estimated to reach 2-3″. Again, some locally heavy amounts could be north of that.

Outside of localized downpours, central Alabama will see a few rounds of rain that may amount to an inch or less. This is not going to be much different that our standard summertime, unsettled weather.

It will just be important to have access to a good source for weather information, as Flash Flooding and spin up tornadoes will be the most spontaneous dangers.

Local impacts will start being felt as early as Monday as we get that push of southerly air ahead of Fred. Then, Tuesday is when we will likely have the most action from Fred. Even still, this will not impact everyone the same. There will still be several places who avoid the rain all together. By Wednesday Fred will be making its way into the TN Valley, where we could have some lingering effects with a trailing southerly flow that still keeps our airmass soupy, and unsettled.

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