Tropical Storm Idalia remains stationary near Cozumel, Mexico. It is forecast to move north into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday night and strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday.


Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with Idalia tracking north and northeast into Northern Florida. Recently, they have been trending more to the east as a trough of low pressure sends a cold front across the Southeast U.S.


Landfall is forecast on Wednesday morning as a Category 2 hurricane on the Big Bend of Florida as the cold front moves across Alabama Wednesday, and this will deflect Idalia to the east into Florida.


NOTE: Rapid intensification is possible due to the relatively low wind shear and very warm Gulf Waters, and this could become a much stronger hurricane at landfall. Right now, Idalia is expected to be a Category 2, but a few models are showing it could be a Category 3, major hurricane. If the cold front moves faster, then that could cause more wind shear for Idalia and cause it to possibly weaken. We will be watching closely for this starting Monday night.

Alabama Threats: On this track, bands of heavy rain and some gusty winds are possible across SE Alabama. A few rain bands could make it to Central Alabama on Wednesday into Thursday. Overall, the threats remain low at this time.