Soggy Start To The Week; Then More Waves Of Rain

SUNDAY NIGHT: We’ll stay dry until well past midnight, but parts of West Alabama could be dealing with showers and storms before sunrise Monday. Lows in the 50s.

MONDAY: A cluster of showers and storms moves across Central and South Alabama in the morning, then we expect a lull in the rain around mid-day as temperatures climb back into the 70s.

The question remains whether or not additional isolated storms develop in the afternoon. There’s reason to believe they won’t; upper air forecasts suggest poor lift in place through the afternoon, but if storms do form, colder air aloft would support storms producing some hail and damaging winds. That cold air aloft means even with surface temperatures near 70°, the atmosphere will be highly unstable south of I-22 and I-20.

As of now, we don’t anticipate any widespread disruptive weather Monday afternoon and evening, but on days like Monday, the best advice is the simple stuff: When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: We’ll sneak in what should be at least a mostly dry day this week on Tuesday, although some isolated downpours will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures rocket back up into the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. The first half of Wednesday should be dry and warm, with highs in the 80s again. An approaching cold front could trigger some showers and storms as early as mid-afternoon, especially northwest of Birmingham. Rain chances increase overnight Wednesday as the front moves into Alabama.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Wednesday’s front will stall across Alabama as we round out the week. As it does so, small scale disturbances in the upper-air flow will provide lift to generate additional rounds of rain and storms.

At this point, no day stands out as a washout, but no day necessarily looks totally dry either. On any given day, potential would exist for training storms to produce some locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding, particularly in areas with poor drainage. However, with streamflows in Central Alabama running around normal for this time of year, and no particular day standing out as a heavy rain producer over the area, we’ll only mention a minor flooding threat for now. We’re forecasting a fairly widespread 1-3″ of rain across Alabama through the next 7 days, but it’s feasible isolated spots could get a lot more than that depending on how storms interact along the stalled front through the second half of the week.