The break in the humidity will continue today as the cold front stalls along the coast. We will be partly cloudy with just a few showers possible well south of I-20. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The heat index will only be around 96-102°.
Tonight, it will be mostly clear, mild and a little muggier. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the old cold front late on Tuesday in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This will bring back the humidity across the Birmingham area along with a few showers and storms mainly south of I-20. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s. The heat index will be around 98-103°.
The Gulf low will meander between New Orleans and Mobile, AL on Wednesday and Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the forecast with the development of the low. Euro model wants to develop it, but the GFS keeps it weak. NHC is giving it a low chance to develop.
Either way, it will send us more humid air along with scattered showers and storms each day, but the better chance for rain will be on Thursday. Some heavy rain will be possible, so we will have to watch out for possible flooding concerns. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to 90° each day.
Friday’s forecast will depend on the development, if any, with the coastal low. Right now, it will be partly cloudy with a few showers and storms. However, if the low develops and tracks over South Alabama then expect more widespread rain. High temperatures will be around 90°.
Weekend Outlook: There is still some uncertainty in the forecast with the placement and strength of the Gulf Low. Right now, we will see a decrease in the rain and a partly cloudy day. It will still be humid with highs in the lower 90s. Sunday will remain partly cloudy, hot, and humid as an upper-level wave and trough move across Alabama. Expect some pop-up afternoon scattered showers and storms. Highs will stay in the 90s.
Tracking the Tropics: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along an old cold front in the northern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. It will meander between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Regardless of development it will bring rain and storms to southern Mississippi and Alabama by mid-week. NHC is giving this system a low chance to develop.