OUTLOOK: One of the most difficult tasks in college basketball is winning the
regular season title in the Atlantic 10 Conference. Not only is there a wealth
of talent every year and more parity than is found in most leagues, but the
conference has 14 members, and they aren't even split into two divisions.
Since joining the A-10 back in 1996, the Dayton Flyers have never captured an
outright regular season crown, but considering the fact that 11 of the 12 top
scorers are back from last year's team that reached the second round of the
NCAA Tournament, head coach Brian Gregory and his squad have to be viewed as
the favorites in 2009-10. Xavier, which reached the "Sweet 16" a year ago,
will certainly put up a fight, but it remains to be seen if the loss of three
starters will be too great to overcome. Richmond doesn't receive much
attention nationally, but the Spiders have a chance to boast one of their best
teams in recent memory. La Salle, UMass and Temple appear to be second-tier
contenders, but all three have a puncher's chance. Saint Joseph's has been a
perennial power in the conference under the guidance of Phil Martelli, but
there isn't an excess of talent to work with this season. Duquesne, Charlotte
and St. Bonaventure are good enough to hang with some of the better teams in
the A-10, but those three squads will be fortunate to finish with .500
records. Finally, there is the bottom group of the A-10, consisting of Rhode
Island, Saint Louis, George Washington and Fordham, teams that have either
lost a great deal of talent recently, or had very little in the first place.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Dayton
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Dayton, 2. Xavier, 3. Richmond, 4. La Salle,
5. Temple, 6. UMass, 7. Saint Joseph's, 8. Duqesne, 9. Charlotte, 10. St.
Bonaventure, 11. Rhode Island, 12. Saint Louis, 13. George Washington, 14.
Fordham
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
DAYTON - Put simply, Chris Wright may be the best player in the A-10. Last
season as a sophomore, the 6-8 forward posted 13.3 ppg and 6.6 rpg, and there
is plenty of reason to believe that his stats will be even better in 2009-10.
But Wright isn't alone as far as talented performers for the Flyers, as Marcus
Johnson is receiving plenty of preseason hype. A 6-3 senior guard, Johnson led
the team in double-digit scoring games a year ago and logs major minutes. He
is joined by London Warren, who paced the squad in steals while also dishing
out 4.4 apg. If Warren can become a scoring threat, which he wasn't last
season, Dayton could prove unstoppable. Dayton scored only 66.8 ppg a year
ago, good for 11th in the A-10, but the club held foes to 61.4 ppg, second
best among league members. The Flyers rebound the ball well and are coached by
a true motivator, so there is a very high ceiling for the club.
XAVIER - Sean Miller did a terrific job as the leader of the Xavier program,
and he has moved on to replace Lute Olson in Arizona. Now, Chris Mack steps in
to fill Miller's void, coaching a team he grew up rooting for. The most
exciting player on the roster for XU is Jordan Crawford, a 6-4 sophomore
guard, who stole some national attention this summer by dunking on LeBron
James at a camp hosted by the NBA superstar. Crawford is a transfer from
Indiana who scored 9.7 ppg and dished out 2.3 apg as a freshman for the
Hoosiers. He is joined in the backcourt by Dante Jackson and Terrell Holloway,
who can score and pass effectively, but neither excels in either category. Up
front, Jason Love needs to take the next step after posting 6.7 ppg and 5.9
rpg last season. Kenny Frease, a 7-0 sophomore, posted 5.4 ppg as a rookie,
and he obviously has the size to dominate.
RICHMOND - The Spiders and coach Chris Mooney hope to emerge from college
basketball obscurity this season. Not only is the roster one of the best at
Richmond in quite a while, but the non-conference schedule has been beefed up
with the additions of Florida, Wake Forest and South Carolina. Last season,
Richmond won 20 games, and four starters from that squad are back. Kevin
Anderson and David Gonzalvez are back to man the backcourt. Anderson, despite
his 6-0 frame, scored 16.6 ppg last season to go along with 2.8 apg, and he is
still just a junior. As for Gonzalvez, he was close behind with 16.0 ppg in
2008-09 and is a deadly shooter from the perimeter. Kevin Smith and Ryan
Butler are back in the frontcourt, and both will be expected to increase their
offensive output. Perhaps the most exciting news for the Spiders is that Dan
Geriot, a 6-9 junior center who led Richmond with 14.3 ppg and 5.3 rpg in
2007-08, is seemingly recovered from an injury that kept him out of action
last season. If Geriot can regain his form, Richmond can win the league.
LA SALLE - Not since the days of Speedy Morris has La Salle been in position
to make a serious run at the A-10 crown, but the team is considered a
darkhorse candidate this season. Rodney Green is one of the finest players in
the league, and he is back for one final season with the Explorers. Last year,
Green scored 17.8 ppg to go along with 5.0 rpg, and he possesses tremendous
size for a point guard. With solid returning talent in the persons of Kimmani
Barrett, Yves Mekongo-Mbala and Ruben Guillandeaux, all three of whom averaged
double figures in scoring last season, Green has plenty of options to pass to
at the offensive end when the double team arrives. Add to the mix 6-10
freshman Aaric Murray, the most prized recruit of the John Giannini-era. La
Salle hasn't reached the NCAA Tournament since 1992, but this could be the
year that the team breaks that streak.
TEMPLE - Life without Dionte Christmas looks a bit bleak for Temple, which may
struggle to find consistency at the offensive end in 2009-10. Sure, Fran
Dunphy is a good coach who will get the most from his players, but he hasn't
attracted blue chip recruits since taking over the reigns of the successful
program. The hope for Dunphy is that Lavoy Allen and Ryan Brooks are ready to
step into starring roles. Allen posted 10.9 ppg and 9.0 rpg last season, and
while the rebounding numbers aren't expected to go up much for the junior, the
offensive output should spike. As for Brooks, who scored 10.6 ppg last season,
he is fearless with the ball in his hands regardless of game situation. Keep
an eye on Michael Eric, a 6-11 sophomore center who figures to log significant
minutes in 2009-10. No one questions Eric's ability to rebound or block shots,
but his ability to score could be the make-or-break factor in the Owls'
season.
MASSACHUSETTS - It is often said that strong guard play is the key to success
in college basketball. If that is the case, UMass and head coach Derek Kellogg
are in good hands with Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley manning the backcourt.
Perhaps the most explosive scorer in the A-10, Harris netted 18.2 ppg a year
ago, although his shot selection was a bit suspect at times. Harris needs to
be a bit more consistent, but he gives the team a chance to win every time
out, because he is impossible to stop on good nights. As for Gurley, he added
11.2 ppg in 2008-09 and is in line for more offensive touches this season.
Aside from those two players, the roster is rather green, but don't mistake
inexperience for a lack of talent. There are plenty of promising performers in
place, as Terrell Vinson is just one of many freshmen/newcomers ready to
contribute immediately.
SAINT JOSEPH'S - We have learned over the years not to doubt Phil Martelli,
who consistently fields A-10 title-contending teams at Saint Joseph's. The
Hawks will be playing in a new arena on campus this season, so excitement in
the form of fan support will be a certainty. But expectations have to be
tempered for obvious reasons. The two best players from last season's team,
Ahmad Nivins and Tasheed Carr, are gone. Nivins was the A-10 Player of the
Year, and Carr was explosive at the guard position. Seniors Darrin Govens and
Garrett Williamson, a pair of experienced backcourt performers, must take huge
steps forward to offset the losses of Carr and Nivins. Govens scored 12.7 ppg
last year and will get many more touches at the offensive end. Williamson
wasn't much of a scorer last season, and if he can be even half as good
offensively as he is at the defensive end, the Hawks should be okay. But let's
face it, at Saint Joseph's, being okay isn't good enough.
DUQUESNE - Not since 1977 has Duquesne earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The Dukes may have their best team in place in recent memory, as head coach
Ron Everhart has put together some impressive recruiting classes the last two
years. No one expected much from Duquesne a year ago, but the Dukes made an
improbable run to the A-10 title game and nearly upset Temple. The 21
victories recorded by Duquesne were the most for the program since 1971, and
the fact that the team was the youngest in all of Division I hoops made the
accomplishment all the more impressive. The Dukes did it with an explosive
offense, as their 78.9 ppg were the second-most in the league. Unfortunately,
the team didn't play much defense, surrendering 74.7 ppg, also second-most
among A-10 schools. Although standout Aaron Jackson is gone, all other
meaningful contributors are back. Damian Saunders brings back 13.1 ppg and 7.6
rpg, and he is ready to become a star. Bill Clark netted 12.9 ppg a year ago,
but his average in A-10 games was far more impressive (15.4 ppg). Don't be
surprised if Duquesne finishes near the top of the conference.
CHARLOTTE - Last season, an injury-plagued group of 49ers finished 11-20
overall, including 5-11 in conference. Bobby Lutz has been the leader of the
Charlotte program for over a decade, but he may need serious improvement in
2009-10 to keep his job. Lutz has a standout point guard to run the show, as
DiJuan Harris brings back 7.2 apg, good for fourth nationally in that category
a year ago. Harris also scored 9.0 ppg and figures to move into double figures
as a senior. The same can be said of three-point marksman Ian Andersen, who
tallied 9.7 ppg as a junior. The third and final returning starter is An'Juan
Wilderness, who may be ready to play up to his level of athleticism, which is
quite high. The player to watch for the 49ers is Shamari Spears, a Boston
College transfer who figures to bring some toughness to the front line.
ST. BONAVENTURE - Mark Schmidt is a magician, a genius or simply a great
coach, depending on who is speaking about him. In his second year at St.
Bonaventure, which was a program on life support when Schmidt was hired, the
outstanding leader willed his squad to a shocking 15-15 record, earning the
program's first A-10 Tournament bid since 2005. A great deal of credit for the
turnaround is due to the play of Andrew Nicholson, who was one of the nation's
best freshmen a year ago. The 6-9 forward/center scored 12.5 ppg, ripped down
6.0 rpg and blocked 81 shots for the Bonnies in 2008-09. It is certainly
refreshing to know that Nicholson is just one of the major contributors back
for another run. Chris Matthews scored 12.2 ppg a year ago, and Jonathan Hall
was even better at 12.9 ppg. Hall, at 6-5, pulled down 6.3 rpg as well.
Schmidt has erased the losing mentality that consumed the program, so there is
reason for optimism moving forward.
RHODE ISLAND - Jim Baron was named the A-10 Coach of the Year in 2008-09, and
he certainly deserved the award for guiding the Rams to a 23-11 record. Rhode
Island played at a feverish pace last season, and the up-tempo style enabled
the squad to lead the conference in scoring at 79.3 ppg. Duplicating that
output will be difficult, however, as star shooter Jimmy Baron is gone. Kaheim
Seawright, who manned the paint, is also gone, so the coach will need a near
miracle to match last season's win total. Still, there is some talent in
place, as Stevie Mejia and Marquis Jones are capable of distributing the ball
and scoring a bit from the backcourt. The man to watch will be 7-0 center Will
Martell, a junior who is a good athlete for his size. If Martell can put it
all together, Rhode Island will be the A-10's most surprising team once again.
SAINT LOUIS - When Rick Majerus took over as the leader of the Saint Louis
program two years ago, he probably didn't expect to be just five games over
.500 through 63 games. Not only is that the case, but his Billikens appear to
be one of the weakest teams in the A-10 heading into the 2009-10 campaign. The
fact that there isn't a single senior and just one junior on the roster is
downright scary. That does mean, however, that plenty of young players will
log significant minutes, bringing promise of a bright future. Kwamain Mitchell
scored 11.0 ppg as a freshman, and the 5-10 sophomore will be counted on to be
a major scoring threat. Brian Conklin netted 6.1 ppg last season, and he will
have to up that average to avoid being leaped by freshmen. As for 6-9 forward
Willie Reed, he can score, rebound and blocked shots, but there is room for
improvement in all three categories.
GEORGE WASHINGTON - It wasn't long ago that George Washington was considered
one of the finest programs in the A-10. Karl Hobbs has seen the rise and
decline under his watch, and the coach hopes that 2009-10 will produce more
positive results. Three starters are back in place, and Damian Hollis is the
best of the bunch. He scored 13.4 ppg a year ago to complement 6.1 rpg, and
Hollis will get even more touches this season. Tony Taylor and Travis King
started in the backcourt in 2008-09, but neither was very effective as George
Washington finished 4-12 versus A-10 competition. The hope is that Lasan
Kromah, a talented freshman scorer, can contribute immediately. Even if he
does, expectations for the team should be tempered.
FORDHAM - One team has to be picked to finish last, and Fordham seems like the
logical choice. After all, the Rams posted just one victory in league play
last season, falling 15 times to A-10 foes. Just two starters are back from
that squad, but that may be a good thing. There is a star in place, as Jio
Fontan brings back 15.3 ppg and 4.7 apg. Fontan considered transferring after
last season's debacle, but he is back and that is great news for head coach
Derek Whittenburg. He is joined by Brenton Butler, a 6-2 scoring guard who is
capable of double figures. Butler was sidelined for much of last season due to
injury, and he may take on the role of go-to scorer early on as opponents
throw two defenders Fontan's way.
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